The Scarcity Index: How Scarce Are Your Sports Cards?

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Rarity is a flawed metric. A card serial-numbered to 10 might sell 25 times in a year, while another card numbered to 50 might not sell for a decade. According to rarity, the card numbered to 10 is "rarer." But it doesn’t feel rare. The card numbered to 50 feels like a ghost.

What we’re talking about here is the difference between rarity and scarcity. Rarity simply tells collectors how many copies of a particular card exist in a specific grade. Rarity can be manufactured by card companies through serial numbering or grading companies, but scarcity cannot. So, how scarce are my cards?

Scarcity combines a card’s rarity with how often it transacts. Together with the total number of copies exist, scarcity provides insights into:

1. How rare a card is.

2. How desirable it is.

   
   

And there’s a straightforward way to measure it: introducing The Scarcity Index.

In this Collecting Guide, we’ll explore how to calculate the Scarcity Index, examine complementary metrics to understand scarcity fully, and discuss what a low or high Scarcity Index tells us about a card.

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Calculating The Scarcity Index

To calculate the Scarcity Index, follow these steps:

Step 1: Decide on the time period to analyze.

Choose a time frame that suits the rarity of the card. Common choices include 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, or longer. Consistency is key. I prefer a 1-year period for comparability across different cards.

Step 2: Decide if you’re analyzing all grades or a specific grade.

If you’re focused on a PSA 10, don’t include all copies in your analysis. Narrow it down to the card’s specific grade or evaluate the total population based on your goals.

Example Calculation:

Let’s analyze the 2014 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto Mookie Betts Gold Refractor /50 and include all copies.

• Total Copies: Since the card is serial-numbered to 50, we know our denominator.

• Sales Data: Using Card Ladder’s Sales History, filter for the past year. On the desktop app, the total sales count will display next to your filters. On mobile, count the sales manually.

  

  
  

Data: The card sold 6 times in the past year.

Calculation: 6 sales in the past year / 50 total copies = 12% Scarcity Index

Said differently, 12% of the total copies sold within the last year.

Trends and Comparisons

To analyze scarcity, compare the index over time or against other parallels of the same card.

Yearly Trend Analysis:

• 2023-2024: 12 sales / 50 copies = 24% Scarcity Index

• 2022-2023: 9 sales / 50 copies = 18% Scarcity Index

• 2021-2022: 5 sales / 50 copies = 10% Scarcity Index

• 2020-2021: 7 sales / 50 copies = 14% Scarcity Index

  
  

Parallel Comparison:

• Purple /10: 2 sales / 10 copies = 20% Scarcity Index

• Orange /25: 8 sales / 25 copies = 32% Scarcity Index

• Green /75: 5 sales / 75 copies = 6% Scarcity Index

• Black /99: 11 sales / 99 copies = 11.1% Scarcity Index

• Blue /150: 16 sales / 150 copies = 10.7% Scarcity Index

For deeper analysis, blend rarity and scarcity metrics to find your ideal balance.

Other Metrics to Pair with The Scarcity Index

The Scarcity Index is powerful, but pairing it with Float and Pop Count adds layers of insight.

Float:

Float measures how many copies of a card are currently available for sale across platforms. Use Card Ladder’s Shop feature to search listings. Advanced collectors can refine this metric by:

• Excluding listings at unrealistic prices.

• Including cards in collections that are realistically obtainable.

Serial Number/Pop Count:

This metric shows how many copies were printed or graded. It serves as the denominator in the Scarcity Index formula. I put together a short guide for you to Find the Graded Population of a Sports Card if you need a refresher.

Interpreting the Scarcity Index

Low Scarcity Index:

Cards with a low Scarcity Index usually indicate one of two scenarios:

1. No Float: Collectors or dealers aren’t selling. This could mean the card is highly desirable or that sellers are holding due to market losses.

2. High Float: Many copies are available but demand is low.

Example: In 2024, the Gold Refractor had a Scarcity Index of 12% (its second-lowest in five years). Only two copies are currently available: one at auction and one listed 50% above the last comp. This suggests the card is landing in collector hands.

Only 2 copies of the 2014 Bowman Chrome Mookie Gold Auto available at the time this guide was published

High Scarcity Index:

Cards with a high Scarcity Index indicate:

1. Frequent Transactions: Dealers and resellers are targeting the card.

2. Collector Turnover: The card is appealing but not valued highly enough to stay in collections long-term.

   
   

   

   
   

Example: The Orange Refractor /25 had the highest Scarcity Index among parallels (32%). Of its eight sales in 2024, four occurred during the Dodgers’ playoff run when Betts’ performance was a hot topic. This suggests sellers capitalized on heightened demand.

Conclusion

The Scarcity Index offers a clear, actionable metric to evaluate sports cards beyond simple rarity. By pairing it with metrics like Float and Pop Count, you can gain a deeper understanding of a card’s true market dynamics. Whether you’re buying, selling, or holding, analyzing scarcity gives you one more metric to empower your collecting.

Big shoutout to @low_pop_papi who originally coined the term and shared it with collectors on the Stacking Slabs podcast!